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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Large NW Coming for The 2011 Pipeline Masters.


NPAC:  This Thursday we get a great follow up on the BIG surf  last Sunday; the jet Stream is lower (25-45N) & fattened up. These large upper air currents are enhancing-steering winterlike low pressures west to east off the Kuril Is. & N Japan to latitudes even to North of Hawaii; the last BIG one's dipped to 500 north which didnt give the open ocean swell much time to drop or cleanup; 
CURRENT: the NNE swell from the old front is 4'  with 12 seconds; this is mixing  with 3' NNW which peaked  8-12+'  of NNW that peaked midday Sunday. This was the Biggest Swell of the season by far but not for long (keep reading). The Big NNW Source was a severe 'captured' gale fetch in the 330-350 band Friday 11/25; this system was inbetween the High and Low pressure centered 1500 miles to our North and nosed to within 500 miles by Saturday so the episode had a mix of long 16 seconds and short 11sec periods. NEXT 2 swells: Last Saturday a gale Low moved east off the Kurils and by Monday tracking ESE with some captured fetch, intensifying and splitting off into another more powerful low; the 1st storm stays 1500 miles further away as it weakens by Tuesday. We should see a beautiful long lined up 4-6' NNW filling in Wed afternoon 11/30; the secondary Low got going sunday and passed the dateline Monday with some storm force 47kt winds and got to within 1000 away. This NNW was upgraded to well above advsry levels and peak at 8- 10 maybe even some 12' sets at Sunset Thursday, Dec 1st. As she fades to 8' Friday expect some short period N to mix later in the day from the nearby winds of an eddy low just to our NNE. NEXT:  a Low off the same area Fri 12/2 also has a captured fetch and crosses the dateline over this coming weekend with gale force winds and nosing to within 600 miles by Monday; lets claim some 4-7' NNW with 11-15 sec on Monday 12/5 with an associated front the winds and weather may be an issue. LAST but not least...Monday's models show a BIG Low tracking east off the Kurils storm force gales near 50kts filling a large portion of the West pacific basin; seas should get 35' or greater as it crosses the dateline Tuesday just 1200 miles away. This one could be BIIGGER than Sunday's 15' peak sets Thursday Dec 8th. This EXTRA BIG NW will veer NNW as it moves east; it will likely be too big for the Billabong Pipe Masters for a day or two. The great news is this will wash away the sand and lead to a classic Pipe scenario; when u compare where we were just a week ago in the forecast this is an absolute blessing compliments of the famed North Shore. Pls  keep in mind: Long range is 7+ days out... and are subject to sharp U turns. 
 SPAC:  NOW: we see a tiny 15 sec, 1.5' maybe a few 2' set SSW ( 18 sec forerunners Monday). About a week ago, there was a  low over 4000 miles away...off NZL's east coast ...which pulses Tuesday 11/29 with average of 15seconds. NEXT: Great News! A rare winter caliber Low came right up the east coast of NZL  this past Friday into Sunday with a partially captured fetch and 40+kts and 30' seas. We can expect long 18 sec period forerunners Thursday afternoon leading to an overhead 2-4'  from the SSW Friday Dec 2-4th. LAST: another more compact fetch in the same area off NZL tracks up our way for some smaller 3' SSW around Wed 12/6. Sweet. Again..the longer the range, the shorter the confidence.
Wind Waves/Tropics:  Holding 2-4+' from the NNE at Makapu'u...the winds weaken for 2 days as the  high moves off to the east; a new one comes in from the NW and leads to another round of fresh NE trades and waves Thursday- Friday. The typical Winter pattern of wind rotating from light to strong and back again as the Highs and Lows to our NW and NE will continue to move west to east.